Inflated ARV: Market Timing

Source: Austin Board of Realtors® It’s much easier to predict market cycles in real estate than in the stock market (where many would say it’s impossible), but you can still lose your shirt by assuming the market will always go up.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-10-24.

One of the easiest mistakes to make in renovating houses is to overestimate their After Repair Value (ARV). In this post, I’m not going to delve into motivations for inflating a house’s ARV. After all, I’ve done it to myself, so far be it for me to cast asparagus on anyone. I’m just going to talk about how it happens, and there are only a few ways:

• Use the wrong comps.
• Mis-time the market.
• Make the numbers fit the model.

I originally planned to talk about all three of these risks in one post, but I soon figured out it would be way too long. Click here to open all posts on this topic.

Mis-time the market

In the stock market, they say the fastest way to go broke is to try to “time the market”—that is to buy when the market is lowest and sell when it is highest. Real estate markets move much more slowly, and we have leading and trailing economic indicators to help us time the market. Some things to consider are:

• Special uses
• Seasonal differences
• Renovation time
• Market cycle

Special Uses

Unless you really know what you’re doing, owning a farm or ranch can be very expensive. For example, a gate won’t stand up to a tractor. Oops!

Special use properties make it easy to misjudge their value.

Farm land is cheaper in bulk; buying by the acre gets expensive. But farm or ranch land doesn’t produce any income unless you actively work it, and—while it does appreciate over time—you can be looking at decades to see significant improvement.

Offices, industrial space, and recreational properties exaggerate swings in the local business cycles. You must have a really good finger on the local economy’s pulse to play in this park—or need the office space yourself. It also costs more to get into this game than standard housing. That said, there is plenty of money to be made if you find a property where the use is about to change—like along the perimeter of where a new Box Store is going in.

Seasonal Differences

We missed the sale window for this lake house because of a combination of factors. We’re now holding it over the winter and using it as a vacation rental to make the mortgage payments until we can sell it in the spring when people are thinking about life on the lake again. Always have more than one exit strategy.

Housing in general sells better in the spring and summer, but resort housing exhibits this behavior on steroids. Many fewer buyers even think about buying a lake house when it’s too cold to get in the water or a house on a golf course when the greens turn white with snow.

We also know that water frontage adds considerable value. But what happens when a drought sucks the lake’s shoreline a quarter mile out? During the last drought, the receding shoreline exposed everything from illegal sewer lines to missing persons still sitting in their rusting cars.

Renovation Time

This is a big one—and one that has bitten every investor I know. You expect a project to take 90 days, but it actually takes six months. Maybe you find unexpected conditions. Maybe it takes longer than anticipated to get permits. Maybe you contractor flakes out.

At a minimum, that means you have additional holding costs for each of those three months, and that can really add up on a big project. At worst, it means you may miss the selling season or even hold a property into a down cycle.

Market Cycle

Given time, real estate will probably appreciate. But never assume appreciation in your purchase decision. If you do, you may wind up holding the property for decades or centuries to recoup your investment. Just look at the Rust Belt or Detroit.

The rule of thumb in Austin is that we have a five year cycle. The market goes up for three years and slumps for two. But the market is unpredictable. As my friend Shenoah Grove likes to point out, “We are now six years into our five-year cycle.” While this prolonged up-cycle is being driven by bigger economic trends—growing population, strong economy, oil boom (yes, the price per barrel is down because we have so much production right now.)—the likelihood of an adjustment makes longer renovation project much more risky.

Given the human trend to assume an up market will last forever, I’d be extra careful about every buying decision.

We’ll See

US population by age

Nationwide fewer people own their own homes as a percentage of the overall population.

Almost ⅓ of people under the age of 35 still live with their parents. This number is considerably higher than it has been for most of my life.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-10-26.

And Home

Sings me of sweet things

My life there has it’s own wings

To fly over the mountains

Though I’m standing still

—Karla Bonoff

Applying national statistics to local markets is always problematic. While local markets are informed by national and world markets, they are driven by local conditions. You can always find local exceptions to national trends. For example, Texas weathered the 2008 downturn much better than other parts of the US (and some parts even boomed) because of the Eagle Ford Shale oil boom. Similarly, parts of Texas were desperate during the national boom of the 90s because the farm economy was down.

That said, I’m going to show you three graphs of US census data that, according to economic blogger Barry Ritholtz, “tell the tale of the US housing market.”

The top chart shows the current population of the US by age. Surprisingly, 26-year-old are the largest single age group while Baby Boomers like me are starting to die off (but we are apparently still a large enough block to cause problems for a well-raided Social Security fund). Now, most people who buy a house buy their first one sometime between 25 and 30. So this age group should be putting a lot of pressure on the housing market.

But home ownership is still trending down (see the middle chart). Why is that?

Part of the reason is that the largest population segments—the one that would normally be powering the housing economy—are staying at home. Almost ⅓ of still lived with their parents as of 2013 (bottom chart).

I don’t want to get into a discussion of why they still live at home. Frankly, I don’t know. But it is important to understand that they do for a couple of reasons.

• Banks take this information into account in making lending decisions. Just look at the source of the graphics: Deutsche Bank’s Chief International Economist Torsten Slok.
• It speaks to the way the national economy is evolving.

Conclusions

At the risk of falling victim to confirmation bias, this data supports one of my beliefs about the way our housing economy is evolving: Home ownership is concentrating in the hands of fewer people, namely investors or landlords. This concentration has several consequences for investors and homeowners alike.

• This trend will continue and we will see more renters and people living in extended family units. Rents will go up, and more families will be concentrated into denser housing like apartments.
• As the percentage of renters increases, wealth will become more concentrate in the hands of fewer people.
• This concentration of real estate wealth will be self-reinforcing.
• It will become more difficult for young people to save enough to buy their first home.
• Investors wanting to sell single-family homes will face a shrinking market comprised primarily of other investors whose main interest will be to buy as cheaply as possible in an expensive market.

Inflated ARV: Massaging the Numbers

When calculating ARV, you have to think like a buyer, a contractor, an appraiser, a seller, and an investor…all at the same time. Any question you can ask yourself is probably important.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-10-07.

One of the easiest mistakes to make in renovating houses is to overestimate their After Repair Value (ARV). In this post, I’m not going to delve into motivations for inflating a house’s ARV. After all, I’ve done it to myself, so far be it for me to cast asparagus on anyone. I’m just going to talk about how it happens, and there are only a few ways:

• Use the wrong comps.
• Make the numbers fit the model.
• Mis-time the market.

I originally planned to talk about all three of these risks in one post, but I soon figured out it would be way too long. Click here to open all posts on this topic.

There are are many ways to tip the scale in favor of something you want to do. Be honest with yourself and let the numbers make your decision.

Make the Numbers Fit the Model

As I mentioned before, wholesalers know our requirements, so it’s easy for them to (intentionally or not) make the numbers fit that model. Most wholesalers understand that their long-term survival depends on their reputation, but there are exceptions to every rule. Rely on your own or a third party for your numbers.

You also have to honest with yourself. We’ve all seen (and some of us have been) someone who says, “My house has to be worth $200,000,” with the implication being “because I need it to be worth $200,000.” Buyers don’t care, and they are the ones who make the final decision about how much a house is worth. If every other house like yours is selling for less than $150,000, nobody will pay $200,000 just because you need that much.

It’s very easy to convince yourself to pay more than you should. “I can pay another $10,000. If I fix it up to be the nicest house in the neighborhood, I should be able to get $20,000 more than those other houses have sold for.” Wrong. You may be able to push the market a little. You may even find a buyer who is willing to pay that $20,000 above market, but, unless the buyer is paying cash, the house still has to appraise. And appraisers work for the bank, not you. They aren’t going to ignore the comps just because you and the buyer agree on a higher price.

Suggestions

Here’s how to avoid these traps:

• Always run your own comps and trust your formulas. Never take the word of a wholesaler, especially when you haven’t done business with them before. Be conservative with your estimates of ARC and overestimate the repair costs. It’s much better to come in under budget and sell the house for more than the inverse.
• Keep your emotions out of it. Whether you are buying, selling, or renovating, your emotions will lead you astray. If you have to, keep a disinterested professional on your team to give you value advice in each stage of the project.
• When selling, it’s okay to be near the top of the market, but don’t try to push the market higher. Price your house just below the top, and let buyers push the price higher if they want to compete for it. Depending on your project, it can cost considerably less to discount a house than to hold it for even a couple of extra months.

Moving to Canada?

Photo by Suna

Suna blogged this campaign on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-10-06, but I helped come up with the concept. And I wanted the graphic to show up in my feed when I scroll back through this blog to remember what I have done in life. Maybe.

Both sides are so divided and hate each other so much that Canada has actually been talking about their immigration offices being overrun with inquiries. We got to thinking, “If so many people want to leave the country, they must want to sell their houses. Right? Let’s see if we can buy some of them.”

Suna found the clip art and put the sign together. We all put them out. One of them is in front of our Cameron office. Let’s see if it works.

Inflated ARV: When a Comp Isn’t a Comp

Just looking at the map, which set of houses looks more attractive? The ones facing the park or the ones facing other houses? I’ll give the answer in the body of this post.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-09-26

As I mentioned in my last post, 0ne of the easiest mistakes to make in renovating houses is to overestimate their After Repair Value (ARV). In this post, I’m not going to delve into motivations for inflating a house’s ARV. After all, I’ve done it to myself, so far be it for me to cast asparagus on anyone else. I’m just going to talk about how it happens, and there are only a few ways:

• Use the wrong comps.
• Mis-time the market.
• Make the numbers fit the model.

I originally planned to talk about all three of these risks in one post, but I soon figured out it would be way too long. Click here to open all posts on this topic.

Use the Wrong Comps

We rely on comparable properties—”Comps,” for short—to make our educated guesses at a house’s ARV. If we base our estimate on the wrong comps, we can really screw up. The rule of thumb is to only use comps within a mile of the subject property. But even if all the comps are within a half mile, they may not be appropriate to our estimate. We must always consider:

• Neighborhood boundaries
• Major streets
• Age
• Condition

Neighborhood boundaries are often marked by major streets. Any time you cross a major street, you’re likely to find the character of the neighborhoods surrounding the properties vastly changed, and the neighborhood influences property values. We looked at two houses in Temple that were on opposites sides of a road. The neighborhood on the north was 20 years younger than the one on the south, but the properties in the older, established neighborhood were higher than the newer houses to the north where it turns out the ground was more mobile, leading to more foundation problems (condition).

But we also evaluated a house in Round Rock where a very similar floor plan in the house directly behind the subject house—a privacy fence separated the two back yards—was worth about $20k more. Why? The subject house had once been the edge of development. All the houses one street over were 25 years newer and in much better shape thanks to a stronger neighborhood association. The subject house was worth considerably less after renovation than the house directly behind it. This was despite the subject’s proximity to a park and an elementary school. The numbers on the subject property were very attractive if we used the more newer, more appealing houses as comps but not when we only used houses on the same street.

A novice investor once showed me a map very similar to this one to justify the price being asked for a house. I pointed out that the so-called comps were in completely different neighborhoods from the subject. In fact, the only thing the “comps” had in common with the subject was that they were in the same ZIP code.

When evaluating another house in Belton, we were given comps that were on the other side of the Interstate from our subject property. Even though the “comps” had sold for more than $200k, our subject would have been overpriced at half that. Given that we were looking at a renovation budget of at least $60k, the $50k asking price was way beyond what we could reasonably pay.

The condition of the properties makes a big difference, too. When buying, if you only look at houses in similar condition to your subject’s current state, you can under value the ARV. But if the houses you use to price your purchase have already been renovated, you could end up paying way too much. The tricky part of buying a house to renovate is keeping both of these numbers in mind when you decide how much to pay.

Suggestions

Here are some basic tactics that will help you ensure you pay the right price for the houses you buy:

• Ensure your comps are as close to the subject property in size, age, and desirability as possible.
• Keep your comps close in proximity to the subject as you can.
• Don’t cross major roads, but remember to deduct value if your subject or comp is on a big road.
• Try not to use properties more than a half mile away from the subject.
• Mark sure the kids who live in the comps attend the same schools and ZIP code as your subject. I’ve seen the house across the street or next door go to a different school. Certain schools can be a tremendous motivation—in either direction—for parents.
• Always at least drive the neighborhood yourself before you decide to buy. If you can’t, make sure someone whose livelihood depends on your team’s profitability does.
• Keep both the current value and the ARV in mind. Make sure there is enough room between the price you’re paying and the ARV to pay for the rehab, your holding costs, and your profit.

Figures Don’t Lie

Selfie by Suna Last year, Paul Esajian invited Sue Ann and me (and some other investors) to watch the San Diego Chargers from the Fortunebuilders skybox. Paul has given us some great advice in the time we’ve known him.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-09-24.

Hanging on every word

Believing the things I heard

Being a fool

—Russ Ballard

One of my mentors, Paul Esajian, says, “Always trust the numbers.” By that he means your numbers. Phill Grove, another mentor, emphasizes this concept. He says, “Always do your own due diligence. Run your own CMA. Do your own repair estimate.” In other words, buying real estate is a perfect opportunity to follow the advice of the old Russian adage, “Doveryai no proveryai”—trust but verify.

Trust but verify. Especially when dealing with wholesalers.

We expect homeowners to lie through acts of commission, omission, and ignorance. They, after all, are in dire straits. They really need to get out of a problem house, and they often know what they need to accomplish that goal down to the penny. We expect them to over-emphasize their house’s strong points and ignore or hide its deficits. Further, they may not even know about a termite infestation, a leak in a wall pipe, or countless other problems that can drive a renovation over budget and into red ink. And, to be fair, homeowners expect investors to lie to them, too.

But wholesalers are a different animal. They speak Investor, so it’s easy for investors to let their guard down too much. For example, wholesalers know how to get our attention with numbers. They know the secret formula we use to make sure we have some cushion for the unforeseen issues that arise in every project: .7ARV – R = O. Our Offer should be in the neighborhood of 70% of the After Repair Value of the property less the cost of Repairs.

The Perfect Deal

Asking Price	$100,000
Repairs	$40,000
ARV	$200,000

So when we see an opportunity like the one shown to the right, our immediate tendency is to short-circuit our processes and jump to the conclusion, “That’s a good deal!” Why? Because .7 of $200,000 is $140,000. Subtract $40,000 in repairs and we should be comfortable paying $100,000 for the house. I mean, what could go wrong? Well, there are only three possible reasons why the numbers match our formula so well:

• The deal is a perfect fit to our expectation, and we stand to make about $25,000 after holding and marketing costs. 
• The ARV has been overstated, intentionally or not, which could reduce or eliminate our potential profit. 
• The repairs have been understated, intentionally or not, which (again) could reduce or eliminate our profit margin.

We don’t need to talk much about what happens in the first outcome, where the numbers are correct. Everybody is happy. Everybody wins. But I reckon each of the other two outcomes deserves its own post. As I write them, you can find them gathered here.

Most wholesalers are hard-working, honest people. But especially with the growth of HGTV, DIY, and similar networks, vast numbers of newbies are coming into this profession, and wholesaling is the logical starting point. (We can discuss why in another post some other time.) People in our profession follow the distribution of the general population with roughly 2% falling somewhere along the psychopathy scale.

It’s like one of my favorite bosses (she hired me three times in the corporate world) once said, “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.”

Other People’s Money

Photo by UfaBizPhoto / Shutterstock The first time you loan a substantial portion of your wealth to a rehabber, you may worry about this being your new home—no matter what your relationship with your borrower. When you stop worrying, it’s probably time to stop lending.

Photo by Ardfern / CC BY-SA If you’re putting your money in Any bank, you might as well be putting it in The Bank, an Irish pub. You’d get more pleasure out of it, anyway.

Being a PML can earn you a Lot More Money than a bank CD. I think the rewards are worth the risk.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-09-08.

In a previous post, I talked about the advantages to Hermit Haus of using other people’s money (OPM). I mentioned that I prefer using private money to every other source. I prefer private money because I really do believe in the big Win-Win and spreading the wealth around a bit. This post deals with why becoming a private money lender (PML) is good for you as the lender.

Let me start out by saying I am a PML. I have helped fund several other people’s projects. I don’t like lazy money. I want my money working all the time—even when I don’t have a deal in progress. (Yes, that does happen sometimes. It seems like this business is always going from one extreme to another. Either you don't have any deals at all or someone accuses you of being a "house hoarder.")

What’s the Worst That Can Happen?

A few years ago, I was at one of those massive networking events with vendor booths all along one wall. I got to chatting with a hard money lender who was willing to fund 70% of the after repair value (ARV). At that time, I had been doing one deal at a time, mostly with my own money. I asked him about the risk of lending money on an undone house. "What's the worst that can happen?" he asked.

“I don't know. I guess I default on the note,” I said, somewhat naively.

“No,” he said. “that’s my best case scenario. Then I get a $200,000 house for $140,000, and somebody else has done the renovation, or most of it." He let that sink in. "The worst that can happen is you pay off the contract as written. Then don'tI only make 14% on my money.”

That was an eye-opening conversation for me. The worst that could happen was for the borrower to honor the contract. Wow!

Why Lazy Money Is Bad

Even though my hard money friend said the worst that could happen was that I paid back his loan, he was wrong. The worst that could happen was that I left my money in the bank. I want my money to work for me, not laze around in a bank. Here’s why:

Banks are pay ridiculously low interest rates. They can get away with these low rates because your money is “safe,” protected by government insurance. Even if the bank fails, you get your original deposits paid back. But that’s not really safe, is it? If you only get back what you put in you have really lost money. In fact, even at the interest rates banks pay today, you are losing money every day you let your lazy money vacation in a bank. Assuming the federal government’s core inflation rate of about 2.2% (January 2016), your money is worth 0.183% less every month. If you put $100,000 in a CD in January, it would be April before the interest rate you earned would overcome inflation. Think about that. It would be three full months before your money—including interest would buy as much as it would if you spent it all in January! And that’s with the highest paying CD I could find on the market today!

At the end of the year, your $100,000 would have grown to $101,124, but it would only be worth $100,939 compared to January. that’s still $939 more than you had to begin with, and compounding would continue to make it grow faster each year. But if you needed to have a million dollars to retire and maintain your current lifestyle, how long would it take you to get there? Would you even still be alive?

Why You Should Be a Private Money Lender

The only way to beat the bank is to BE the bank. Become a PML.

Let’s say you invested that same $100,000 with a reputable rehabber at 10% with one point paid at funding. You would earn $1,000 just for making the loan.

Think about that. You’d make almost as much money just for making a loan that could possibly be repaid the next day as you would for leaving your money in a CD for a full year. Then you would earn $833 in interest every month until the loan was repaid when the house was sold. that’s a lot more than the $183 the highest paying CD would give you.

Now as a PML, you could let your money compound, just as you would with a CD. But you could also take that interest payment every month and do with it what ever you want. Put it back for taxes. Make a car payment. Anything. What would it be like to drive a $100,000 car and have someone else make the payment for you every month? At the end of the day, you have the car and the $100,000.

The graphic at the right compares the money you'd earn as a PML to the money you’d earn in a CD. Even if one project finished and it took two months to find another project to fund, you’d still make $9,552 during the year. that’s $8,428 more than a CD. You’d make an additional $360 by letting the interest compound. Or you could drive an essentially free car.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is simple. Find a local rehabber to work with. Fund their projects and let them do the work. Just make sure you have a good contract and a first position lien on the house. I would also recommend that you not loan more than 75% of ARV and stay involved with your rehabber. That way, if the loan goes south, you still have a $133,000 house for $100,000.

For more information about being a PML, sign up for our free booklet.

How To Finance Your Projects

Photo source: Amazon “Other People’s Money” didn’t originally have the connotation we think it does today. Based on what happened in 2008, Brandeis’s thesis is a lesson lost. I highly recommend this book to anyone who has money or wants to have money some day.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-08-30.

If you watch HGTV’s Flip Or Flop—and who hasn’t?—you’ve heard Tarek El Moussa say, “We buy houses for cash.” If you watch regularly you may have also heard him say that they don’t always use their own cash. Not using your own cash is a consistent bit of advice from everyone from Than Merrill to Phill Grove.

But if you have enough money, why not use your own? Honestly, if you have enough money to complete a purchase and remodel on your own, you probably should do your first one or two deals with your own money. But you really don’t want to continue that practice for several reasons:

• It limits the number of deals you can do at one time.
• It lowers your return on the money you invest.
• It ties up resources you might be able to use for bigger deals or personal emergencies.

But, to me the most important reason to use other people’s money (OPM) is that doing so enables you to spread the rewards of this business as well as the risk.

I seldom fund a project completely with my own money. Why tie up $100k on one project that returns $30k when you can tie up $40k on two projects that return $25k each in the same amount of time and still have a reserve? (All numbers in this post are provided to illustrate points and do not necessarily reflect any given project.)

So where do you get OPM?

Here are some sources:

Hard money

Hard money lenders are bricks and mortar businesses, like banks. But they play by different rules than banks. They generally charge the most points and highest interest rates of any source.

Private money

Private money lenders are people like you and me. They loan you their money to complete your projects in return for the guarantee you’ll pay them back.

Banks

You’ve probably heard the myth that banks won’t loan money on distressed houses. What that means is you can’t get a traditional mortgage on a house that isn’t up to code. But you can get a one or two year construction loan. In many cases, these loans are interest-only until due, and they are at a much lower interest rate than hard or private money. The catch is that you must already have a proven track record and assets to get a bank to finance your project.

Owner financing

Owners are the least likely source of capital. If they had the money to fix up their house and sell it on the open market, they probably would. But you can offer to fix up their house for them and split the proceeds.

My favorite source is private money. Even when a bank finances the purchase, private money often finances the renovation. Why? That’s the topic of my next post.

What Is Reverse Wholesaling?

Reciprocity is the psychological word for fair play. When we do something for someone, they usually feel obligated to do something for us. It works both ways.

You can find blank assignment contracts on the Web. I recommend paying the money to have a good lawyer in your area draw one up.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-08-27.

I’ve talked about the benefits of wholesaling real estate on a couple of posts. In short, wholesaling is the process of getting a property under contract and selling that contract to another investor. (For a more in depth explanation, see “What Is Real Estate Wholesaling?” In “Marketing Pays Off!” Sue Ann discusses a double-close wholesale deal that brought us a needed cash infusion.

Today, I want to talk about a specific variety of wholesaling called “Reverse Wholesaling.” Now Reverse Wholesaling technically isn’t a different type of wholesaling. It’s really more of a wholesaling strategy. Simply put, it’s all about knowing who is going to want to purchase the rights to your contract before you make the offer.

Here’s how it works:

Let’s say you’re out Driving for Dollars (driving around looking for off-market properties you might want to buy). You find someone loading a U-Haul trailer, moving out of a house. So you stop to chat. You find out that they are going to walk away from the house for personal reasons (that matter a lot to them but not to this discussion). You walk through the house with them and realize that you can help salvage their credit score by buying the house. You make the offer and they accept. You now have a marketable interest in the contract to purchase the house.

So far, this scenario fits the wholesaling model perfectly. But what about Reverse Wholesaling?

You know this house is a good investment at the price you now have it under contract—just not for you. But your friend Samantha is looking for exactly this type of deal. You call Samantha and she’s thrilled you found the house for her. You assign the contract to her and collect your assignment fee.

How is that any different from traditional wholesaling?

It’s different because you never had to market the contract. You had a list of buyers, and you knew what they were looking for. You simply called one of the investors you already knew wanted to buy a house like this one.

I was involved in a transaction very similar to this one just last month. Eugene, a wholesaler, blasted a property to an investor group’s email list. I went to see the property and knew immediately that the deal was too thin for the Hermit Haus model, but I knew someone whose model it fit perfectly. I put my friend Larry in touch with the wholesaler, and Larry bought the house. I did not collect a fee because I had no equitable interest; I never owned the contract. But I earned goodwill points from both Larry and Eugene, who has since given me first dibs on several of his wholesale deals.

There are numerous tactics for building your buyers list, but that is the topic of a future post.

If It Were Easy….

Even when you have an established relationship, just getting contractors to show up in a hot market can be a challenge.

Weather has a way of overcoming your systems. It has been one of our biggest uncontrollable expenses this year.

When squatters, vandals, or thieves break into a project, the best you can hope for is to replace a broken window or two. When you’re working to turn a neighborhood around, break-ins will happen.

The discovery of knob and tube wiring at St. John’s cost us more than 100% of our contingency to rewire the house and bring it up to code.

Brody reminds us that the first rule of investing is vigilance. Keep an eye on everything.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus blog on 2016-08-20.

If it was easy everyone would do it

If it was easy everyone would be in Clover

If it was easy I'd be the first to do it

If it was easy I'd gladly go back through it

—Lynn Anderson, Ed Bruce

This year, most of our redevelopment projects have run way over schedule. Running long is a bad thing because it always involves extra costs that eat into your schedule—if nothing else, your holding costs mount up. So I wanted to take a look at the reasons why we’re taking longer to complete projects than we thought we would. I also wanted to figure out what, if anything we could do about them. Here’s some of what I found:

Contractor Work Load

The projects that have run longest have all been in hot markets. When a market is hot, it can afford more redevelopment/remodeling work than softer, cooler markets. Contractors, even those with whom you have established long-term relationships, have more work than they can handle, and they often prioritize higher paying retail jobs over maintaining a close relationship with investors, who typically negotiate lower prices than retail customers. Even if you enforce schedule penalties in your contracts, your contractors may decide paying them—or walking off a project—is better for their short-term financial picture than meeting your deadlines.

Unfortunately, the only alternative I see is simply to plan for longer projects up front. If you plan for a six month project that completes in five, you are in much better shape than if you plan for a three month project that completes in five. The net result of your projections being tighter is that you will probably do fewer projects because you have to buy them at lower prices.

Weather

I’m not going to complain about all the rain delays we’ve had this year—not after the drought and wildfires of previous years. But we’ve had plumbing inspections on the Villa Park project delayed by months and leveling St. John’s house put delayed by weeks because of standing water. So far this year, I estimate the rain delays have cost us more than $10,000.

As Charles Dudley Warner famously said, “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” All you can hope is that you have large enough reserves to survive the short term so you can reap the long term benefit. You also need to insure your projects with builders’ risk policies that cover any storm damage that may occur, especially if your project is in a flood zone.

Vandalism and Theft

When a redevelopment site sits vacant, unsavory people eventually notice, especially if you’re working on a property that has been vacant for a while before you start your project. We’ve encountered vandalism on the St. John’s house where people broke into the house to party and sleep it off over a holiday weekend. I also mentioned the dumpster full of engine oil there. And finally, one of our contractors had all of their tools and 30 gallons of paint stolen from the Villa Park project back in February. All of these events took time and money to repair.

The good news is that our insurance covered at least part of the costs we incurred here. Our contractor’s insurance replaced most of their tools. The jury is still out on whether the insurance will cover any of the oil disposal costs. When you encounter vandalism and theft (and you will if you’re in this business long enough), insurance can be the difference between making an losing money.

Unplanned Repairs

“You never know what you’ll find when you open a wall” is a truism in this business. Here are some of the things we’ve found in walls, in ceilings, and under floors this year:

• Knob and tube electrical wiring 
• Illegal electrical splices 
• Undisclosed WDI damage 
• Broken pipes 
• Inadequate sewer ventilation 
• Inadequate engineering

Luckily, with all of that we haven’t found mold or asbestos.

But these things are why we always have a contingency built into every reconstruction budget. Our contingency is usually about 10-15% of the overall reconstruction budget. On houses built before 1970, we can include as much as 10% of the purchase price. So far, we have never failed to use at least 100% of our contingency on any project.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line for all of this is that redeveloping, renovating, or whatever the scope of your project is a risky business. Like farming, many of the factors that affect your economic survival are far beyond your control. You can’t even know about a lot of them when you commit to a project, but we have a duty to provide a safe home for our buyers. We place people first (above profits), and so should you. If all you want is the money, you’ll develop a reputation that will make it unattainable.

Dumpsters: Lessons Learned #2

Yes, there is an uncovered dumpster in front of St. John’s house again—and another lesson learned.

A covered dumpster can pay for the difference in price over the cost of an uncovered dumpster by deterring theft of services. If you own an uncovered dumpster, DumpsterGard can help. Photo source: Dumpstergard

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus Redevelopment website on 2016-08-18.

I haven’t written much about St. John’s house, primarily because we are fairly passive in that deal. Our friend Larry is managing that project through his San Antonio GC, Abigail. Overall, I am very satisfied with the progress, even though we are now way behind schedule, but that is the topic for another post. Today I want to talk about a lesson we learned the hard way.

Back in January, I talked about the value of using a dumpster to organize a construction site, keeping it neater and safer. We learned another valuable lesson about dumpsters thanks to the St. John’s project.

There are two basic varieties of metal roll-off dumpster: covered and uncovered. Dumpster covers can be hard shell or tarp. Either way, covering the dumpster securely can make it harder to get into when left on an empty job site.

Why is that important?

A covered dumpster can pay for the difference in price over the cost of an uncovered dumpster by deterring theft of services. If you own an uncovered dumpster, DumpsterGard can help.

Even though we are beyond demolition on St. John’s project, there was enough landscaping debris and scrap from an unplanned upgrade to the house that we decided to bring in another dumpster as we wound down. The waste removal company delivered the dumpster near the end of the shift, and the construction crew had them place it where it would be accessible then left for the day.

Overnight, someone came by and completely filled the dumpster with paint cans and other containers full of used motor oil. My guess, based on the volume of oil, is that someone had been paid to cleanup another site and dispose of the oil legally. But when they saw a convenient empty dumpster, they decided their profit margin would be considerably enhanced by not paying for a legal disposal. They simply filled our dumpster with their hazardous waste and called the job done. Even though theft of services is a crime—in this case a felony because of the economic value of the theft—there were no witnesses to the crime and not enough clues for the police to investigate. The problem is made worse because motor oil can’t legally be disposed of in a dumpster. Duh!

Now the burden and expense of legal disposal falls on us.

Would covering the dumpster have absolutely prevented this kind of theft? No, but it would have made the process more difficult and slower. Criminals tend to look for easy prey, like an uncovered, unattended dumpster. The more difficult you make committing a crime, the less likely you are to be victim of one.

In short, rent a covered dumpster and make sure your crews secure it every night before leaving the site.

Construction Management Academy

JD Esajian explains all the steps involved to permit a house his team is renovating in La Jolla.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus Redevelopment website on 2016-08-03.

As Sue Ann mentioned the other day, I spent the weekend in San Diego at a class called the Construction Management Academy. It was two full days under the tutelage of JD Esajian, formerly of Flip That House and one of the founders of CT Homes and Pacific Builders.

There were a lot of details to pick up on, but we didn’t spend as much time on management systems as I would have preferred. Instead, JD used several of their current projects to call out the things you have to be aware of in a construction project, many of them unique to projects that sell for more than a million dollars in California.

Here are a few of the chestnuts I brought home for the Hermit Haus team:

Here I am on a rooftop deck of a $3.2M renovation that turned a 2K square foot home into a 4K.

• It is cheaper to fix problems uncovered in planning than in construction. Spend the time needed to thoroughly plan every project instead of trying to minimize the time between closing on the purchase and the start of demolition.
• Some neighborhoods have lengthy delays for permitting. (We know this is also true of Austin, where two of our projects have taken more than a year to permit.) That’s okay so long as you know it going into the project and take the appropriate steps:
  • Factor the extra holding costs into your purchasing decision. Usually, this means negotiating a lower purchase price, but it may mean leasing the property out for a year while you work on getting the permits.
  • Make sure your financing plan takes the lag into account. You don’t want to have to repay the purchase and renovation loan(s) before your have started your project. Also, you probably don’t want to be paying high private- or hard-money interest rates for a year before you start work.

I’m going to have signs like this one made to post at all of our job sites. Not all adults behave as such.

• You can’t count on appreciation to help you out if you buy wrong. Run your numbers many times before you fork over the cash.
• There has to be a transparent, workable system to facilitate communication and accountability among all team members, including yourself, contractors, lenders, and anyone else involved in the project.
• Always have a contingency in place. There is a truism that you never know what you’ll find when you open a wall. Or a floor, for that matter.
• You’re not alone in this business. Network with your peers. Chances are someone else has already solved the problem that has you stumped.
• Every company should have a mission statement and a code of conduct. Make sure yours are prominently displayed on every job site.

Siri Dictation

Shouldn’t that be, “…a short list of subs”? Oh, Siri!

Here’s something you won’t find on my business blogs where I have to be more … businessy.

For those of you using screen readers, here’s a transcript of the Messages screenshot. And it makes it look like I put more effort into his post.

Them: Do you use big name foundation companies for slab work?

Me: [Basically, once].

Them: I have a carpenter … and a shirt lust if dubs.

Me: Siri dictation?

Austin’s “Affordability Crisis”

High prices mean more people, especially young people, are renting again. Pricedoutforever.com argues that this is a good thing. I’m not certain if its good for them, but it is a good thing for investors. Photo by Pricedoutforever.com

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus Redevelopment website on 2016-07-23.

The median price of a single family home in the City of Austin rose 3% to $350,000 in June. When you take the surrounding cities into account, the median price was up 8% to $295,000. This sounds like great news to investors, but it actually makes our game riskier. Just as the higher prices are denying many first-time home buyers and lower income families the opportunity to buy a home in Greater Austin, they make it harder for investors to find the margins we need to sustainably run our businesses. Not impossible, just harder.

If you talk to a real estate agent, they’ll say, “Buy high, sell higher.“ But remember agents are motivated by commissions, and they get paid no matter which way the market trends. They get paid more if it goes up, but they still get paid if it goes down, assuming it doesn’t collapse and they can still sell something.

The more people get priced out of the market, the fewer people there are to buy any given home. That doesn’t seem to be a problem yet—along with the "affordability crisis" the ABOR article mentions, we have a supply crisis. Our inventory levels remain at historical lows, less than two months. I’ve even heard speculation we may see a one month inventory in the near future. That means, despite the price, someone is buying all the houses that are for sale, and it’s not just investors.

Remember, a stable market has around six months of inventory. So we are still in a really hot market.

While the trend in median home price continues upward, it is not a straight line. You can’t count on appreciation to save your donkey. Data source: Austin Board of Realtors^®

But consider this: this business is cyclical, and it can turn on a dime. Add to that what our mentor Shenoah Grove says: "We’re currently eight years into a five year cycle," and you can begin to see why some investors are starting to talk about bubbles. And finally, I’ve seen a market correction in the first year of every new administration since I can remember, regardless of which party was involved. So you have to ask yourself if we are approaching the crest of the wave.

Over time, real estate has always appreciated. But that appreciation isn’t a straight line, unless your talking about the very long run. It’s downright bumpy. And as I’ve always said, to reap the long term benefits, you have to survive the short term. Or as I once heard Alan Greenspan quote John Maynard Keynes when asked why investors don’t plan for the long term, "In the long run, we’re all dead."

So how do we continue to help people and make money in times like these? We have to stick to basics.

• Don’t buy assuming appreciation will fix our mistakes. I think it will...in the long run—if we survive the short run.
• Know your end buyers well enough to improve the house to the right level, neither over improving nor under improving.
• Remember your time lines and try to eliminate slack from your schedules. This one is really hard right now when contractors and subs still have more work than they can handle. Why do should they care about your schedule?
• Manage your holding costs. Use private money rather than hard money. Use bank money rather than private money.
• Partner up to spread the risk. You only shoulder half the risk with a seasoned partner, but you only get half the profit.

That said, don’t forget the motto I learned from my mentor Than Merrill: “People first, profits second.“ This business revolves around solving other people’s problems. Even in these high-priced times, even when the market turns down, if you can help people solve their problems, this business will continue to be rewarding and profitable.

For the full report on the June market from the Austin Board of Realtors, see Austin-Round Rock home sales on pace to surpass 2015 record levels amidst affordability crisis

The Pros and Cons of Real Estate Wholesaling

When you have a property under contract, you have a marketable interest in that property: the contract. You can sell that contract in most states, but you can't sell the property until you own it. Talk to your lawyer.

I designed this infographic of the wholesale cycle way in the future. Too bad I don’t have it now.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus Redevelopment website on 2016-07-21.

Many "experts" recommend real estate wholesaling as a quick, inexpensive, and easy way into the business. While it may be the lease expensive way to start out, wholesaling isn't all that easy. For a complete explanation of what wholesaling is, see "What Is Real Estate Wholesaling?"

Pros

You can raise money fairly quickly.

Because you use very little of your own money and you collect on your investment quickly, it is possible to raise money very quickly. The amount of money you can raise depends primarily on your skill as a negotiator. How cheaply can you put the property under contract? How little of your money can you tie up in the process?

Risk is lower than renovating or buy and hold.

Again, because you use very little of your own money, you risk very little of your own money. But there are other risks.

Cons

It is not without risk.

Wholesaling can be very close to practicing real estate agency. You have to be very careful of your practices and wording to avoid this risk. Further, you will probably have at least a little of your own money at risk. And you risk your credibility with your peers if you don't perform a fair amount of due diligence before marketing your contract.

It takes a significant amount of effort.

Wholesaling requires more effort than just about any other kind of real estate investing and sales. It is a full-time marketing gig with very little repeat business. No seller will ever sell you more than one house. How would that sound? "Hey, Lee. You bought my house when it was being foreclosed on a few years ago. Guess what?"

You have to be willing to invest in marketing.

Because wholesaling is lead-driven, you have to generate a lot of leads for every deal that comes along. This part really isn't any different than other parts of the investing game, but it is something you have to be aware of. That means you have to be prepared to spend money and effort to generate those leads.

You can't do it on the MLS.

I see a lot of novice wholesalers trying to re-market a house they found on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS)—or from one of the big real estate sales websites like Realtor.com. The honest truth is, if it's on MLS, it's probably a very thin deal—usually too thin—for any investor already. By the time you add in a wholesaling fee, it probably isn't a deal any longer—if it ever was.

The point of this post isn't to try to scare you away from wholesaling. I want you to wholesale. We buy a good chunk of our deals from wholesalers. My business would be much smaller without reputable, reliable wholesalers.

The point is for you to understand what wholesaling is, what you're getting yourself into. You can make good money wholesaling, if you work at it and maintain good relationships with your buyers. But you will get much more out of it if you understand the needs of the people you buy from and figure out how to satisfy those needs.

How We Help Families in Probate

Being executor of a loved one's estate can feel like a weight dragging you down to the darkest depths below. [Hermit Haus] can help, even if it's only to listen. Image by Bitmoji

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus Redevelopment website on 2016-07-12.

Probate is one of those areas where emotions run high, and it's very difficult to determine the right thing to do. Many psychologists recommend not making any significant financial decisions for a year after the death of a loved one. That's good advice if you are in a position to follow it.

But what if you're not?

First, I want to be clear that I fully understand wanting to protect your family against opportunists who want to take advantage of your grief. There are plenty of those people out there, and I firmly believe taking advantage of a grieving family is a sure way to total your karma.

If your family has the resources to wait a year before making a decision, that's probably the best thing to do. If we can help answer any questions about the process, we will do so with no expectations. I was the executor of my father's estate, and that is a burden I wouldn't wish on anyone. It keeps you picking at the wound for however long it takes to settle the estate. In my case that was two years before I could begin to let the scab form.

Remember: emotional stamina is a finite resource—often more finite than money.

But if your family doesn't want the house, can't afford to keep it, or doesn't have the resources to get top dollar when you sell it, we can help there, too. We'll make a cash offer for the current value of the house and close at your family's convenience. If you're not looking for a quick sale, we have other ways to help.

The last thing we want to do is intrude on the grief process. But if you know someone who needs help or just free advice, call us. We've been there.

Open House: Ash

We added a few plants to the front walkway. I like how the colors pop against the gray brick.

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus Redevelopment website on 2016-07-10.

We had our first open house at the Ash House today. Sue Ann promoted it on all our media outlets for a couple of days, but because I'm not the Social Media thinker, I forgot to mention it anywhere until it was over. Sigh!

Carol and I worked it, and we had a pretty good turnout that included a lot of our neighbors. One even followed Carol from where she put out the open house sign to the house! All of our neighbors were grateful for the project and seem genuinely enthused to help us sell it. This is one case where you really can pick your neighbor.

Another thing I love is Fredericksburg peaches. One of our neighbors gave us these to say thanks for fixing up the Ash House. I forgot to give Carol any. Wonder if there will be any left for the next meeting. Hmmm... Still life by Suna

We only had a couple of serious buyers, and one of them said the split level was a deal breaker. Even with only two steps, they were concerned about frailty and balance as they age. But they were really nice people who are looking to downsize and relocate to Temple. Carol may be able to help them with selling their home and finding the right place in Temple.

That’s one of the things I love about this business. You meet really interesting people if you take the time to learn their stories. There are so many ways to help others. Another thing is making the houses happy again. We had nothing but good comments on all of the selections. Preserving the character of this house instead of redeveloping it was the right choice. The most common comment was, "I can't believe how beautiful it is! Did you see it before?"

We learned that there is a fault line running through the neighborhood at the bottom of the hill. The neighbors all told us that the houses on top of the hill (like the Ash House) are fine, but all of the houses farther downhill have foundation problems because of the constantly shifting soil. I will have to understand the issue better and find a solution before we take on a project in the more mobile part of the neighborhood.

Finally, we also made a couple of good contacts. One of the neighbors is a probate attorney, and another buys furniture from estate sales. We find it rewarding to help families through the hurdles of probate and selling a house.

Almost Ready

The nearly completed renovation of the Ash House, narrated by Lee!

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus Redevelopment website on 2016-07-06.

The Ash House is almost (but not quite) ready for market. Here's a video that shows where we're at today. We're hoping to wrap up all of the annoying little details tomorrow.

We've put a lot of effort and money into this renovation. Because we were so taken by the original charm, our goal was to restore the house to what it once was and honor its architectural spirit, not to redevelop it into something new. Even so, here's what the new owner will get:

• A cleared and clean yard, but the bamboo we took down will continue to need maintenance for a while (This stuff is just hard to kill!)
• A new roof
• New energy-efficient windows and doors throughout
• New appliances, including the kitchen, water heater, and HVAC system
• New flooring throughout (except for the original brick)
• A luxurious soaking tub built by our granite contractor
• Custom shower in the guest bath

All of that will make for a wonderful home in one of the nicest areas of Temple, Texas. It's just a few miles from the medical center, shopping, and the country club.

I invite you to come see it for yourself next Sunday from 1-4PM CDT. You can find out all about the open house on the Facebook event page.

HUD Announces New Mortgage Buying Regulations

For more information about the effect of hedge funds buying mortgages, see Realtor.com and Hedge Fund Photo by Ken Tannenbaum/iStock via Realtor.com

This post originally appeared on the Hermit Haus Redevelopment website on 2016-07-01.

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) wants to reduce the number of delinquent mortgages sold to hedge funds and other major corporations, according to Bloomberg. To accomplish this objective, HUD has implemented new regulations that favor local governments and nonprofits. The goal is to help delinquent borrowers stay in their houses. The assumptions are:

• Private investors "rush" to foreclose to convert the properties to rentals or other more liquid assets.
• Nonprofits and local governments will be less likely to foreclose and more likely to keep current owners in their houses.

The "private investors" involved are usually not people (except under the erroneous definition of the "Citizens United" ruling). They are too-big-to-care banks and hedge funds that buy hundreds or thousands of troubled mortgages at a time. I know several private note buyers who operate legitimately and ethically. I would not want to tar them with the same brush as the corporate raiders.

People like us at Hermit Haus try help these distressed homeowners salvage what's left of their credit by buying their houses (sometime subject to the existing mortgage, sometimes not) before the house goes to foreclosure. We occasionally buy at foreclosure auctions, but by then the damage has been done, and it's down to the numbers.

Nonprofits and possibly local governments will probably be less likely to foreclose than the hedge funds. One question is can these institutions raise the money they need to accomplish HUD's goal. If they can't, the delinquent mortgages will be offered to the corporations a couple of months down the road. It would be good if they could take possession of title and use the houses to provide low- or moderate-income housing. The latter could bring needed capital into financially distressed areas.

The other question is what will keeping distressed buyers in their houses accomplish? Putting on my Nostradamus hat, I foresee four possibilities, depending on the reasons for the homeowners' distress:

• People who suffer from payment shock—having payments that go up because of the increased price of taxes, insurance, or interest (in adjustable rate mortgages) beyond their capability to pay—may be able to renegotiate their principle or interest rates to bring their payments down to something they can afford. I believe this will be good for the homeowners and the economy as a whole.
Heart makes this business rewarding. Money only makes it possible. We try to help good people in bad situations.
• People who get into trouble because of job loss or a healthcare crisis (which often results in the loss of a job and medical insurance) may be able to stay in their houses for a while longer, maybe even permanently as a result of a governmental or charitable purchase. Whether or not they would be able to afford to maintain their properties in a livable condition remains to be seen. Many of the houses we purchase are "unlivable" because the owners couldn't afford or perform upkeep. This results in people living in some truly horrid conditions. I've seen toilets that haven't worked in years. (You can't un-see that!) Whether or not this outcome would really be beneficial to the people involved and the economy depends on the actions of the charities and local governments. Will they be able step up to the additional costs of upkeep of an individual's home? In the case of local governments, will their constituents even allow them to do so?
• People who make bad financial decisions will continue to make them. Additional bad decisions may or may not lead to an eventual foreclosure. I talked to one person facing foreclosure who believed it would be possible to win a third set of concessions from their lender. It wasn't. In this case, the concessions only deferred the inevitable, and the person was well and truly surprised when the lender auctioned off their home.
• People who are gaming the system will continue to exploit that system. I've often said—so often that Sue Ann is tired of hearing it—that human beings can't invent a system that other human beings can't corrupt.

Now for the question many of you have been waiting for: how will these changes affect investors like Hermit Haus? I don't believe the will have any significant effect. Our business model is to intervene before foreclosure or to pick up the pieces afterward. We buy houses, not mortgages. When we buy houses from people facing foreclosure, we try to find creative ways to help them start over; we don't just put them on the street.

The truth remains, that if you can't afford your house, if you can't afford the upkeep on your house, if you're facing foreclosure or bankruptcy, we are likely to be your best option. Call us. We'll try to help.